1. Purpose and Scope

The Mushroom Growth Stage Forecasting System is a web-based decision-support and cultivation management system designed to assist authorized users in recording and managing mushroom cultivation batches, monitoring growth stages, recording harvest information, generating yield and harvest-related forecasts, viewing decision-support recommendations, and producing cultivation-related reports.

The system is intended primarily for authorized use in connection with mushroom cultivation operations, research, monitoring, and related activities of the PSAU Mushroom Center and other authorized institutional users.

2. Authorized Use

Access to the system is limited to authorized users who have been provided with a valid user account.

Users must use the system only for legitimate cultivation, research, academic, administrative, monitoring, and reporting purposes.

Users must not permit unauthorized persons to use their account or access information available through the system.

3. Account Security

Users are responsible for maintaining the confidentiality of their account credentials.

Users must not:

• share their login credentials with unauthorized persons;
• attempt to access another user's account;
• bypass system security or authorization controls;
• intentionally interfere with system operation; or
• use the system to gain unauthorized access to data.

Suspected unauthorized access or security incidents should be reported to the appropriate system administrator or authorized institutional office.

4. Accuracy of Information

Users are responsible for providing accurate and appropriate information when recording:

• mushroom batches;
• inoculation information;
• number of mushroom bags;
• cultivation observations;
• pinning observations;
• harvest dates;
• actual harvest weights;
• abnormalities;
• and other operational cultivation records.

Incorrect, incomplete, delayed, or inaccurate information may affect monitoring results, reports, forecasts, and decision-support recommendations.

Actual physical observations and actual recorded harvest measurements should be recorded truthfully.

5. Forecasting Functions

The system may use different forecasting processes depending on the current cultivation day and availability of historical information.

These may include:

No Yield Prediction during biological stages in which an operational harvest-yield forecast is not yet applicable.

Historical Baseline Projection using normalized historical yield information expressed in grams per initial bag and scaled according to the number of bags in the active batch.

SARIMA forecasting using the implemented Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model.

Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing as a second time-series forecasting method.

Combined Forecast, which currently combines 60% of the SARIMA forecast and 40% of the Holt-Winters forecast.

Forecasting methods may be updated in future versions when supported by appropriate research, validation, and system changes.

6. Forecast and Decision-Support Disclaimer

Forecasts generated by the system are estimates derived from historical cultivation data, statistical forecasting methods, batch information, and the currently implemented forecasting methodology.

Forecast results and Decision Support System recommendations are intended to support cultivation and harvest planning.

They do not replace:

• actual mushroom inspection;
• actual crop condition;
• actual physical harvest measurements;
• established cultivation practices;
• or professional agricultural judgment.

The system does not guarantee that predicted harvest dates or predicted weights will exactly match actual future harvest results.

7. Actual Observations Take Precedence

Actual observations and actual recorded harvest measurements take precedence over forecasted values.

For example, if the system predicts a harvest weight of 80 grams but the actual physical harvest is 120 grams, the actual harvest record must remain 120 grams.

A forecast must never be used to replace or falsify an actual physical measurement.

8. Biological Stage Interpretation

The system separately evaluates biological stages and forecasting outputs.

The currently implemented biological timeline includes:

• Day 1–28: Colonization / Spawn Run
• Day 29–35: Pinning / Primordia
• Day 36 onward: Fruiting / Harvestable

Forecasting output alone must not be interpreted as definitive proof of the actual biological condition of a mushroom batch.

Recorded observations may provide additional evidence regarding actual batch condition.

9. Research and Historical Records

Authorized historical cultivation information may be used for research, forecasting, statistical evaluation, system validation, and other legitimate institutional purposes consistent with applicable policies and privacy requirements.

Users must not intentionally alter, falsify, erase, manipulate, or misuse historical research records or operational cultivation records without proper authorization.

10. Prohibited Activities

Users must not:

• intentionally enter false cultivation or harvest information;
• manipulate records to produce misleading forecasting results;
• attempt unauthorized database access;
• deliberately damage or interfere with the system;
• bypass access controls;
• impersonate another user;
• misuse confidential or restricted information;
• use the system for unlawful purposes; or
• intentionally modify research information without authorization.

11. System Availability

Reasonable efforts may be made to maintain system availability.

However, temporary interruptions may occur because of:

• maintenance;
• hosting or server issues;
• Internet or network interruptions;
• software updates;
• technical failures;
• power interruptions;
• security incidents;
• or circumstances outside the control of system administrators.

Continuous or uninterrupted availability is not guaranteed.

12. Privacy and Personal Data

Personal information processed through the system will be handled in accordance with applicable institutional policies and applicable Philippine data-protection requirements, including Republic Act No. 10173, or the Data Privacy Act of 2012.

Acceptance of these Terms does not constitute unrestricted consent to every possible use of personal information.

Personal information should only be collected and processed for legitimate purposes connected with authorized system operations, account administration, security, cultivation management, research, reporting, and other authorized institutional activities.

13. Changes to the System

The system may be updated to:

• correct defects;
• improve security;
• improve usability;
• improve forecasting functionality;
• address research findings;
• comply with institutional requirements; or
• comply with applicable laws and regulations.

14. Changes to These Terms

These Terms and Conditions may be revised when necessary due to changes in the system, institutional requirements, or applicable rules.

Users should be informed when material changes to the Terms require additional acknowledgement.

15. Suspension or Restriction of Access

Authorized administrators may restrict or disable a user's access when reasonably necessary for:

• account security;
• unauthorized system use;
• suspected misuse;
• termination or modification of institutional authorization;
• system maintenance; or
• compliance with applicable institutional requirements.

16. Governing Rules

Use of the system is subject to applicable laws of the Republic of the Philippines and applicable authorized institutional policies.

17. Contact

Questions regarding system use may be directed to the appropriate PSAU Mushroom Center personnel, system administrator, or authorized institutional office.

18. Acceptance

By selecting "I Agree and Continue," the user confirms that:

"I have read and understood these Terms and Conditions and agree to comply with the rules governing use of the Mushroom Growth Stage Forecasting System."